Suicide and meteorological factors in São Paulo, Brazil, 1996-2011: a time series analysis

Objective: Considering the scarcity of reports from intertropical latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere, we aimed to examine the association between meteorological factors and suicide in São Paulo. Method: Weekly suicide records stratified by sex were gathered. Weekly averages for minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (°C), insolation (hours), irradiation (MJ/m2), relative humidity (%), atmospheric pressure (mmHg), and rainfall (mm) were computed. The time structures of explanatory variables were modeled by polynomial distributed lag applied to the generalized additive model. The model controlled for long-term trends and selected meteorological factors. Results: The total number of suicides was 6,600 (5,073 for men), an average of 6.7 suicides per week (8.7 for men and 2.0 for women). For overall suicides and among men, effects were predominantly acute and statistically significant only at lag 0. Weekly average minimum temperature had the greatest effect on suicide; there was a 2.28% increase (95%CI 0.90-3.69) in total suicides and a 2.37% increase (95%CI 0.82-3.96) among male suicides with each 1 °C increase. Conclusion: This study suggests that an increase in weekly average minimum temperature has a short-term effect on suicide in São Paulo.

Suicide and meteorological factors in São Paulo, Brazil, 1996-2011: a time series analysis.

OBJECTIVE:: Considering the scarcity of reports from intertropical latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere, we aimed to examine the association between meteorological factors and suicide in São Paulo. METHOD:: Weekly suicide records stratified by sex were gathered. Weekly averages for minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (°C), insolation (hours), irradiation (MJ/m2), relative humidity (%), atmospheric pressure (mmHg), and rainfall (mm) were computed. The time structures of explanatory variables were modeled by polynomial distributed lag applied to the generalized additive model. The model controlled for long-term trends and selected meteorological factors. RESULTS:: The total number of suicides was 6,600 (5,073 for men), an average of 6.7 suicides per week (8.7 for men and 2.0 for women). For overall suicides and among men, effects were predominantly acute and statistically significant only at lag 0. Weekly average minimum temperature had the greatest effect on suicide; there was a 2.28% increase (95%CI 0.90-3.69) in total suicides and a 2.37% increase (95%CI 0.82-3.96) among male suicides with each 1 °C increase. CONCLUSION:: This study suggests that an increase in weekly average minimum temperature has a short-term effect on suicide in São Paulo.

Income inequalities and stroke mortality trends in Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1996-2011.

BACKGROUND: It is not clear the relationship between stroke mortality trends and socioeconomic inequalities in low- and middle-income countries. AIMS: We compared differences of trends in stroke mortality by socioeconomic status in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: We analyzed the intra-urban distribution of stroke death rates from 1996 to 2011 for persons aged 35-74 years old according to income using joinpoint regression. RESULTS: We confirmed 77 848 stroke deaths in the period, 51·4% of them among persons aged 35-74 years old. For all areas, there was parallelism between genders, and the average annual percent changes combined was -5·2 (-5·7 to -4·6) from 1996 to 2005 and -3·0 (-4·3 to -1·7) from 2005 to 2011. The full period average annual percent changes of age-adjusted rates between persons living in the high- and low-income area were, respectively, -5·4 and -4·2 (P = 0·002) for men and -5·9 vs. -4·9 (P = 0·017) for women. Differences in the risk of stroke between the high- and low-income areas increased more than twofold in the period in both genders. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of stroke death is decreasing in all regions, but the faster decline in mortality rates in the wealthiest area contributes to further greater inequalities.

Income and heart disease mortality trends in Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1996 to 2010.

BACKGROUND: Reductions in heart disease mortality rates are variable according to socioeconomic status. METHODS: We performed a time trend analysis of all heart diseases (all circulatory diseases, except rheumatic, cerebrovascular, and aortic diseases) comparing three different household income levels (high, middle, and low) in the city of Sao Paulo from 1996 to 2010. RESULTS: A total of 197,770 deaths were attributed to heart diseases; 62% of them were due to coronary diseases. The rate of death due to heart diseases declined for the city as a whole. The annual percent change (APC) and 95% confidence intervals for men living in the high, middle and low income areas were -4.1 (-4.5 to -3.8), -3.0 (-3.5 to -2.6), and -2.5 (-2.8 to -2.1), respectively. The decline in death rate was greatest among men in the wealthiest area. The trend rates of women living in the high-income area had one joinpoint; APC was -4.4 (-4.8 to -3.9) from 1996-2005 and -2.6 (-3.8 to -1.4) from 2005-2010. Middle and low income areas had an APC of -3.6 (-4.1 to -3.1) and -3.0 (-3.2 to -2.7) from 1996-2010, respectively. During the last 5years of observation, there was a gradient of the decline of the risk of death, faster for people living in the wealthiest area and slower for people living in the more deprived neighborhoods. CONCLUSION: Reduction in deaths due to heart diseases is greatest for men and women living in the wealthiest neighborhoods.

Suicide rates and trends in São Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age and demographic aspects: a joinpoint regression analysis / Taxas de suicídio e tendências em São Paulo, Brasil, de acordo com gênero, faixa etária e aspectos demográficos

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in São Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. METHODS: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. RESULTS: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. CONCLUSIONS: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of São Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.

OBJETIVO: Avaliar as taxas de suicídio e as tendências em São Paulo por gênero, faixa etária e métodos. MÉTODOS: Dados de mortalidade foram coletados a partir de bases de dados da Prefeitura de São Paulo de 1996-2009. A população total foi estimada utilizando dados do Censo Nacional. Utilizamos o programa Joinpoint regression analysis para explorar tendências temporais. Também avaliamos estado civil, etnia, local de nascimento e métodos de suicídio. RESULTADOS: No período, ocorreram 6.002 suicídios, uma taxa de 4,6 por 100.000 habitantes (7,5 em homens e 2,0 em mulheres), a relação masculino-feminino foi cerca de 3,7. Tendências de suicídio para os homens apresentaram uma queda significativa de 5,3% por ano entre 1996 e 2002, e um aumento significativo de 2,5% ao ano a partir de 2002. Mulheres não apresentaram alterações significativas na tendência. Para os homens, os idosos (> 65 anos) tiveram uma redução significativa de 2,3% ao ano, enquanto os homens mais novos (25-44 anos) apresentaram um aumento significativo de 8,6% ao ano a partir de 2004. Mulheres não apresentaram alterações significativas na tendência por faixa etária. Principais métodos de suicídio foram enforcamento e envenenamento, para homens e mulheres respectivamente. Outras análises mostraram um aumento do risco relativo ao suicídio para os solteiros e estrangeiros. CONCLUSÕES: Foram identificadas tendências epidemiológicas específicas do suicídio na cidade de São Paulo que merecem uma investigação mais aprofundada. Grupos de alto risco - como os imigrantes - poderiam se beneficiar com estratégias focalizadas na prevenção do suicídio.

Suicide rates and income in São Paulo and Brazil: a temporal and spatial epidemiologic analysis from 1996 to 2008.

BACKGROUND: In a classical study, Durkheim noted a direct relation between suicide rates and wealth in the XIX century France. Since that time, several studies have verified this relationship. It is known that suicide rates are associated with income, although the direction of this association varies worldwide. Brazil presents a heterogeneous distribution of income and suicide across its territory; however, evaluation for an association between these variables has shown mixed results. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between suicide rates and income in Brazil, State of São Paulo (SP), and City of SP, considering geographical area and temporal trends. METHODS: Data were extracted from the National and State official statistics departments. Three socioeconomic areas were considered according to income, from the wealthiest (area 1) to the poorest (area 3). We also considered three regions: country-wide (27 Brazilian States and 558 Brazilian micro-regions), state-wide (645 counties of SP State), and city-wide (96 districts of SP city). Relative risks (RR) were calculated among areas 1, 2, and 3 for all regions, in a cross-sectional approach. Then, we used Joinpoint analysis to explore the temporal trends of suicide rates and SaTScan to investigate geographical clusters of high/low suicide rates across the territory. RESULTS: Suicide rates in Brazil, the State of SP, and the city of SP were 6.2, 6.6, and 5.4 per 100,000, respectively. Taking suicide rates of the poorest area (3) as reference, the RR for the wealthiest area was 1.64, 0.88, and 1.65 for Brazil, State of SP, and city of SP, respectively (p for trend <0.05 for all analyses). Spatial cluster of high suicide rates were identified at Brazilian southern (RR = 2.37), state of SP western (RR = 1.32), and city of SP central (RR = 1.65) regions. A direct association between income and suicide were found for Brazil (OR = 2.59) and the city of SP (OR = 1.07), and an inverse association for the state of SP (OR = 0.49). CONCLUSIONS: Temporospatial analyses revealed higher suicide rates in wealthier areas in Brazil and the city of SP and in poorer areas in the State of SP. We further discuss the role of socioeconomic characteristics for explaining these discrepancies and the importance of our findings in public health policies. Similar studies in other Brazilian States and developing countries are warranted.

Spatial clusters of suicide in the municipality of São Paulo 1996-2005: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: In a classical study, Durkheim mapped suicide rates, wealth, and low family density and realized that they clustered in northern France. Assessing others variables, such as religious society, he constructed a framework for the analysis of the suicide, which still allows international comparisons using the same basic methodology. The present study aims to identify possible significantly clusters of suicide in the city of São Paulo, and then, verify their statistical associations with socio-economic and cultural characteristics. METHODS: A spatial scan statistical test was performed to analyze the geographical pattern of suicide deaths of residents in the city of São Paulo by Administrative District, from 1996 to 2005. Relative risks and high and/or low clusters were calculated accounting for gender and age as co-variates, were analyzed using spatial scan statistics to identify geographical patterns. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations with socioeconomic variables, considering, the spatial cluster of high suicide rates as the response variable. Drawing from Durkheim's original work, current World Health Organization (WHO) reports and recent reviews, the following independent variables were considered: marital status, income, education, religion, and migration. RESULTS: The mean suicide rate was 4.1/100,000 inhabitant-years. Against this baseline, two clusters were identified: the first, of increased risk (RR=1.66), comprising 18 districts in the central region; the second, of decreased risk (RR=0.78), including 14 districts in the southern region. The downtown area toward the southwestern region of the city displayed the highest risk for suicide, and though the overall risk may be considered low, the rate climbs up to an intermediate level in this region. One logistic regression analysis contrasted the risk cluster (18 districts) against the other remaining 78 districts, testing the effects of socioeconomic-cultural variables. The following categories of proportion of persons within the clusters were identified as risk factors: singles (OR=2.36), migrants (OR=1.50), Catholics (OR=1.37) and higher income (OR=1.06). In a second logistic model, likewise conceived, the following categories of proportion of persons were identified as protective factors: married (OR=0.49) and Evangelical (OR=0.60). CONCLUSIONS: This risk/ protection profile is in accordance with the interpretation that, as a social phenomenon, suicide is related to social isolation. Thus, the classical framework put forward by Durkheim seems to still hold, even though its categorical expression requires re-interpretation.

Suicide rates and trends in São Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age and demographic aspects: a joinpoint regression analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in São Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. METHODS: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. RESULTS: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. CONCLUSIONS: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of São Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.